Serbia’s gas deal with Putin has created a fresh headache for Europe

Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vucic announced that his country had agreed to a new three-year gas supply deal with Russia’s state energy provider, Gazprom, writes CNN

Vucic created a fresh headache for the Western anti-Putin alliance and, notably, for the European Union. 

On the other side of the continent, EU heads of state were mired in gruelling negotiations over the sixth package of sanctions against Moscow. The final deal, announced late Monday, includes a partial ban on Russian oil imports to the bloc.

Brussels was forced to make an exemption for oil imported to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic via a pipeline to get everyone on board. This was seen by some EU members as a significant concession.

While Serbia is not an EU member state, it is part of an EU enlargement plan that also includes some of its neighbours. The EU is set on expanding to the east and sees the Western Balkans as key to European security — even more so in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Of these Balkan states, Serbia, in particular, is seen as crucial for numerous reasons. 

Its size, population and geographical location all make it a major stakeholder in the geopolitics of the region. If you want to have a conversation about the future of Bosnia or Kosovo, you are going to need the Serbian government in the room. 

However, Serbia is also very reliant on Russia when it comes to gas. It is also militarily cooperative with Moscow. In short, Serbia benefits enormously from its relationship with Russia, and even if it obtains EU membership down the road, it will not want to burn its bridges with the Kremlin.

This creates two simultaneous realities for the EU that, when placed next to one another, are rather difficult to reconcile. 

Serbia is so big and important that it is crucial to the EU’s enlargement project, which seeks to strengthen and expand European values, stability and security.

It is also so big and important that it can do deals with Russia, China and the EU all at the same time — however it sees fit — and still be the apple of Brussels’ eye.

That might be about to change, though.

While Serbia has backed several UN resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion, it has not sanctioned Moscow or aligned itself with Brussels on sanctions against Moscow — something candidate states are expected to do. The new Russian gas deal, some EU officials and analysts fear, may be a step too far for some EU member states.

“If concluded, the deal would dash hopes of those who saw an opportunity to reduce the Russian influence in the region,” said Filip Ejdus, associate professor of international security at the University of Belgrade. 

Ejdus believes Vucic might be seeking to have his cake and eat it. He predicts the Serbian president “will certainly make reassurances that Serbia remains on the EU path, while maybe still expecting a better counter-offer by German chancellor Olaf Scholz.”

However, Ejdus warned that “the gamble might backfire this time,” as the EU has other policy priorities at the moment; he says trust between the two parties may be permanently damaged. 

Whether that means that accession talks stall, or that the EU takes a different approach, remains to be seen. However, there is no denying that the gas deal has been a particularly bitter pill for officials and diplomats in Brussels to swallow.