It would be helpful to consider that, given the complexity of the geopolitical conditions in the Balkans and the psychological aspects of the Kosovo-Serbia conflict, a feasible solution may only be possible through the development of a comprehensive cost-and-benefit strategy, supported by a pragmatic approach toward reconciliation, by the EU and the US.
The recent demonstrations that occurred after the municipal elections in the three Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo, along with the subsequent events, indicate the heightened tension between Prime Minister Albin Kurti and ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, as well as the strained relationship between Kurti and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić. These incidents showcase the significant divide and lack of trust that still exists between them.
Unfortunately, there were several regrettable incidents that took place before and after the demonstrations. These included the deployment of police by Kurti to suppress the demonstrations, Kurti’s decision not to approve the Association of Serb Municipalities, Vučić’s failure to formally sign the Franco-German agreement despite giving his verbal commitment, Vučić’s urging of Kosovar Serbs to abstain from the elections and “oppose the occupation,” and his deployment of a Serbian military contingent to the border with Kosovo. The unfortunate escalation that followed, resulting in injuries to 30 KFOR peacekeepers, led to strong criticism by the EU and the US towards Kurti’s misguided action.
In order to ensure stability in the Balkans and achieve meaningful progress in the negotiations between the two sides, it would be beneficial for the EU and the US to take into account the factors that significantly influence the perspectives and attitudes of both Vučić and Kurti.
Firstly, it would be beneficial to thoroughly comprehend and address the psychological aspect of the conflict that continues to affect them. Secondly, it would be helpful to establish a clear framework that outlines the potential advantages and disadvantages if they engage in sincere negotiations and honor the concessions they offer. Lastly, it is important for the EU to showcase its eagerness to support the process of integration and clarify the benefits that Vučić and Kurti would attain in their pursuit of joining the EU, a goal they both strongly desire.
In order to gain a deeper understanding, it would be beneficial to have a stronger comprehension of the character of these two leaders, their strengths and weaknesses, their goals, and how they aim to be perceived by their own people, their allies, and their adversaries.
Kurti strongly believes in Kosovo’s independence and considers it extremely important. He is opposed to the Association of Serb Municipalities because he believes it could threaten Kosovo’s territorial integrity. Despite being imprisoned during the war, Kurti is aware of the terrible acts and war crimes committed against Albanian Kosovars by Serbia. He and his fellow countrymen still bear the psychological scars of that time. Kurti is disappointed by Vučić’s ongoing refusal to address the issue of the missing Albanian Kosovars, who are believed to have been buried in mass graves.
Additionally, Kurti appears to have concerns about Vučić’s ability to fulfill his promises, which may explain his hesitation to fully implement the commitments he made, including those outlined in the Franco-German plans. While he may have held anti-American views during his time in opposition, he acknowledges the crucial role the US plays in safeguarding Kosovo’s security and independence.
Vučić possesses a complex personality and has certain reservations. He has strong nationalistic beliefs and is sensitive to the opinions of the public. He firmly stands against acknowledging Kosovo’s independence, as he expressed in his interview on Happy TV. He stated that the Serbian leadership will not agree to surrender, support the membership of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo in the United Nations, or acknowledge its independence.
It appears that he may not always negotiate in good faith. This was evidenced by his initial acceptance and subsequent refusal to sign the Franco-German plan in Ohrid, North Macedonia on March 18, despite having previously stated his intentions. He also consistently encouraged ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to boycott elections and not comply with authorities in Prishtina.
Additionally, it is worth noting that he has expressed a desire to integrate into the EU, however, his beliefs do not align with those commonly held in Western countries. He has been known to exhibit authoritarian tendencies and has denied allegations of war crimes committed by Serbian forces against Albanian Kosovars. Furthermore, he maintains a close relationship with Russia, which has traditionally been a strong ally of Serbia due to their shared Slavic and religious ties. This is evidenced by Serbia’s reliance on Russian military support and opposition to Kosovo’s independence from the UN. Additionally, he has declined to participate in sanctions against Russia and is unlikely to shift his stance while Putin is in power, as he fears the repercussions of going against Russian interests, especially during the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
It would be greatly appreciated if the EU, with the support of the US, could consider developing a new strategy that would encourage cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia. This process could involve reconciliation and intermediate agreements that benefit both countries. It is important that the EU provides a clear path forward for both Kosovo and Serbia, based on reciprocity and full adherence to any agreements made.
When addressing Kurti, it is important for the EU to establish that becoming a part of the bloc involves working closely with the EU and adhering to all the rules and agreements that govern it. The EU believes that Kurti may not be a dependable ally, as he disregarded their advice to lower tensions and maintain peace by sending police to northern Kosovo without consulting the EU, at a particularly sensitive moment.
Secondly, it would be greatly appreciated if Kurti could show more trust in the judgment of the EU and the US, considering their role as guardians of Kosovo’s security and independence. Both parties are committed to preserving Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, so it would be advisable for Kurti to promptly approve the establishment of the Association of Serb Municipalities. Furthermore, it would be beneficial for him to start implementing the Franco-German agreement and redirect any defensive actions toward Vučić instead of himself.
Thirdly, it would be greatly appreciated if Kurti, as a potential EU member, could show attentiveness towards the West’s apprehension about the stability of the Balkans, particularly with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Putin’s efforts to disrupt the area and provoke the West into another unpredictable situation.
Fourthly, despite any lack of trust, Kurti may have towards Vučić, it is crucial for him to develop effective communication and show the EU that he is committed to honest negotiations. He should strive to avoid any perception of personal responsibility for any setbacks during the negotiation process, while simultaneously strengthening his credibility with the EU, as it is essential for Kosovo’s integration progress.
Finally, it may be beneficial for Kurti to focus more on improving the state of domestic affairs in Kosovo. It would be advantageous for him to work towards meeting the standards set by the EU in areas such as socioeconomic development, education, culture, and human rights. It would be beneficial for him to address issues of corruption, promote foreign investments, create job opportunities to prevent the loss of skilled workers and invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and housing. Additionally, it is important for him to prioritize the needs of underprivileged members of society, particularly children.
As Kurti has aligned Kosovo’s future with the EU, it is important for him to showcase that Prishtina deserves EU membership. Regardless of the timing, Kosovo’s voice will be on par with countries like France, Germany, and Italy. This will be an extraordinary achievement for Kosovo, but it also comes with a significant responsibility. Currently, there are doubts about his standing with the EU and the US. It is now his duty to demonstrate his trustworthiness, leadership abilities, and competence to fulfill the demands of the situation.
The EU, in return, could kindly consider providing Kosovo with a framework for potential integration, taking into account Pristina’s dedication to adhering to EU guidelines, and basing the integration process on the progress Kosovo achieves in all areas.
It would be greatly appreciated if the EU and the US could consider supporting Kosovo in the following areas where important progress can be achieved: gaining membership in international organizations; kindly requesting the five EU states that have not yet recognized Kosovo—Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and Slovakia—to acknowledge its independence; initiating a dialogue with the EU to facilitate the integration process; and encouraging Vučić to fully implement the Franco-German agreement, which plays a pivotal role in fostering reconciliation between the two countries.
The EU acknowledges that Vučić may face certain limitations in promoting Serbia’s integration with the EU due to his association with Putin, unlike Kurti. However, considering Serbia’s ambition to join the EU, it is important for Vučić to recognize and embrace the necessity of coexisting with an independent Kosovo.
It would be appreciated if Vučić could refrain from publicly denying Kosovo’s independence, considering that it has already been established as irreversible. Additionally, it would be preferable if he could avoid inciting rebellion among ethnic Serbs in Kosovo against Prishtina, as he has done following the recent elections in the three Serb-dominated municipalities.
It would be advisable for him to gradually distance himself from Russia and keep in mind their increasing isolation on the international stage, along with their military setbacks in Ukraine and decreasing global influence. It’s important to consider that Russia may not be a reliable ally in the future.
In addition, it would be highly beneficial if Vučić could actively encourage the Serbs residing in the northern part of Kosovo to reintegrate into the institutions and contribute constructively towards stabilizing the region. It is also recommended that he demonstrates his commitment by signing and faithfully implementing the Franco-German agreement, thus improving his credibility, which is currently compromised.
It would be highly appreciated if Vučić could consider taking measures to improve relations with Kosovo. This could involve the negotiation of interim agreements on issues such as water distribution from Lake Ujmani and mining at Trepça Mine, as well as the promotion of trade, cultural ties, and student exchanges.
While these activities may not be seen as formal recognition of Kosovo, they can help mentally prepare the Serbian public for such a possibility, particularly after Putin leaves the political stage.
It would be appreciated if the EU could consider offering Serbia a roadmap that would lead to full integration and engage in a dialogue toward achieving this goal. It would also be helpful if the EU could develop and agree on a mutually beneficial arrangement so that Vučić can have a clear understanding of what he might receive in return for any concessions made. This includes ensuring compliance with any agreements, especially the Franco-German accord, which is essential in resolving the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo.
Given that the stability of the Balkans heavily relies on the resolution of the Serbian-Kosovar conflict, it would be beneficial for the EU and the US to consider presenting a roadmap towards EU integration that both Belgrade and Prishtina desire, in order to shift the current dynamic of the conflict.
Now, it is in the hands of Vučić and Kurti to either miss out on the chance of becoming an essential part of the European community, or collaborate harmoniously, grasp the opportunity, and experience the benefits of growth, prosperity, and security that are provided to all member states of the EU.
